Understand your opponent's mindset

Often in no limit games, you are playing the player as much as you are playing your own cards. You have truly reached that next level when the cards do not matter. Poker is not a game of cards played with people. Poker is a game of people played with cards. Knowing your opponents is key to success at the table. Furthermore, understanding the state of mind your opponent is in will also help. I think this story serves as a good example.

I was playing in my usual $1/$2 game. That evening, there was a tournament going on. As players would bust out of the tournament, they would often hit the cash games for a little while. I was already about a $100 winner and was planning on playing for another orbit or two. A new player joined the table who had just busted out of the tournament. He was telling his "bad beat" story to a friend of his (it really wasn't a bad beat in the normal sense of the word--he just got his money in bad and was steaming a bit). I was quick to observe this and knew that I might be able to get this player to make a mistake. I have found that in the lower limit no limit games, most of your profit will come from taking advantage of your opponents mistakes. You have to make fewer moves and just wait for an opponent to make a mistake.

I picked up A-K in middle position and raised to $12 after there was one limper in the pot. At this table my standard opening raise was $10 due to the looseness of some of the players. After one limper, I made my usual pot sized raise. Action folded to the tournament player who immediately moved all in for about $120. This was a huge overbet of the pot and I knew something was fishy about such a large bet. I knew I wasn't up against A-A or K-K, so my worst fear would be a race situation. I also considered the range of hands he might do this with. Any pocket pair was certainly a candidate, but also any two big cards (A-Q, A-J, K-Q, K-J, Q-J, etc.). My opponent might also have the same hand as I do. If you are in the late stages of a tournament and short on chips it of often correct to move in with any of the hands I thought my opponent would have. Knowing that my opponent just got out of the tournament made me feel confident that I was in a good situation with my A-K. After considering the range of hands I was up against, I would be about even money half of the time and about a 3 to 1 favorite the other half. Once I added in my opponents state of mind to the decision process, I knew I had to call. For all I knew, he might have just been on tilt from the tournament and bluffing (I really didn't want to catch a bluff as any two live cards against my A-K are only a 2 to 1 underdog--I really wanted to have him dominated). I called and to my delight my opponent turned over K-J. He basically gift wrapped $120 for me by moving all in. He was only getting called by hands that had him in bad shape. This is why overbetting the pot can be a costly move in no limit games.