A triple draw mistake

I recently played in a 2-7 triple draw tournament. I wanted to capitalize on my good finish earlier in the year as I knew there would be a lot of bad play early on. And indeed there was. It seemed like every hand would be at least 4 way with at least 2 players drawing two cards on every draw. I played tight early and stole a couple of pots against aggressive opponents who would miss their draw after the third draw. I won two pots with pairs and never had to show it down. I then went on a horrible streak when I would make good hands (8-6 or better) and ran into a player who kept drawing two cards and hitting the nuts. This happened three times. After that, i was a bit short stacked. I managed to win a pot with an 8-5 low to keep afloat. I then picked up the fourth nut (7-6-5-4-2) and got good action on it.

After my table broke, I was moved to the table with the chip leader. Still short stacked, I managed to double up with third nut low against the chip leader's 8 low. I now had enough chips to feel comfortable. I proceeded to have a run of paint cards that would have been great for draw high poker, but I was folding a lot of hands. I finally got dealt a pat 8-5 low and slow played it and got an extra bet out of my opponent. I then picked up a couple more small pots. We were finally down to 7 players and at the final table. I lost one pot early after I bet a 9-8 lo after the second draw and got check raised. I folded that one. I was starting to get marginally short stacked. I knew I had to find a hand and go with it soon.

Action was folded to me on the button. I usually don't always raise on the button in triple draw as that play is very obvious to a good player. However, I looked at A-J-8-6-4 and decided stealing the blinds was worth it at this point in the tournament. I raised. The small blind made it 3 bets. The big blind folded. I called. I thought about why the small blind made it 3 bets. Was he trying to keep this pot heads up and shut out the big blind? Did he think I was on a total steal with absolutely nothing? My opponent drew two cards. I obviously did the same. I now knew that he started with 3 wheel cards. I drew a Q and a 3. My opponent checked. I improved my hand so I bet. With the pot this big, I didn't think he would fold. He didn't and then drew two more cards. I took one off and picked up a 7. I now had a good, but vulnerable hand: 8-7-6-4-3. My opponent led out and bet.

Why would he lead out after drawing two when I drew one? If he checks, I'm almost certain to bet there as I was down to two big bets. Did he really hit two perfect cards? I'm guessing he has a one card draw to a 7. I have a made hand so I decided to raise and get all in. He called. Then he stood pat. This totally confused me as I was almost certain he was going to draw since I could tell that he didn't like my raise after the second draw. Now I'm in a very tough spot. Did I make a wrong read? Did he hit two perfects to make a or a smooth 8 and lead out with it? If he made a 7 or 8, my hand is no good. If he has a 7, I'm practically drawing dead. Even if I hit a 2, I only have 4th nut. If he has an 8, I'm still in bad shape as I'm still drawing to the 2 if I throw away the 8, or drawing to a 2 or a 5 if I throw away the 7. If I hit an 8-6 low, it might not be good either. I'm really in a tough spot. I decided to go with my read that I was beat. I threw away the 8. As soon as I did that my opponent said, "I think you just broke the winner." I was crushed. My read was wrong. He turned over 10-8-7-5-2. At least I had a few outs to stay alive. I drew a jack and it was over.

My mistake was not considering how much worse my hand could get if I drew. Sure, I was going with the read, but nobody is ever perfect in their reads. After raising all in with my 8-7-6, I should have been content with it. If I'm beat, I'm beat. What is even more frustrating is that this mistake is all on me. I didn't get sucked out on or have a bad run of cards. I simply made the wrong decision and it cost me. If I win that pot, I'm up to 2nd or 3rd in chips and have a good chance to win it all. While I haven't played too many triple draw tournaments, I shouldn't have made that mistake.